The most optimal thing that outside countries can do is give the Ukrainian migrants the means to safely return home and contribute to Ukraine’s reconstruction process. Ukraine’s population loss is exacerbated by civilian and military casualties and refugees fleeing the country. But now the situation is likely to be much worse. One study projected an additional population loss of 16% over the next 20 years. UKRAINE’S POPULATION DECLINEīefore the war, demographers expected Ukraine’s gradual population decline to continue. Ukraine has a population of about 36 million compared to almost 52 million in 1991. According to statistics compiled by The Economist, Ukraine, including Crimea and the Donbas, lost about 16% of its population between independence and the eve of the 2022 Russian invasion. Fertility rates in Ukraine have dipped significantly since 1960. For example, Ukraine had 8 births per 1,000 people and 14.5 deaths per 1,000 people in 2020, according to the most recent data from the World Bank. Ukraine’s population has been falling since the early 1990s, as deaths have consistently outpaced births, and many people have emigrated in search of better opportunities. Even if Ukraine and its Western supporters outlast Russia, they may achieve no more than a pyrrhic victory, leaving a liberated but empty country unable to rebuild its economy. While an extended conflict along the lines of World War I or the Iran-Iraq War may be attractive to those who would like to weaken President Vladimir Putin’s Russia, it also has negative implications for Ukraine. ![]() Without clear momentum or a path to peace, the war threatens to become a protracted one. One year into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the conflict appears to be hardening into a stalemate, with each side experiencing relatively limited territorial gains and losses.
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